VN thuộc "nhóm kinh tế mới nổi"

VN thuộc "nhóm kinh tế mới nổi"

BBC:

Trước đây BRIC (viết tắt tiếng Anh) của bốn nước Brasil, Nga, Ấn Độ và Trung Quốc được xem là nhóm các nước mạnh và có tiềm lực.

Nay người ta bắt đầu nói tới nhóm CIVETS, viết tắt chữ đầu tiên trong tiếng Anh của Colombia, Indonesia, Việt Nam, Ai Cập, Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ và Nam Phi.
Điểm chung của ba nuớc 3 châu Á, 2 châu Phi và 1 quốc gia Nam Mỹ là đều có dân số rất trẻ, đất đai và lao động rẻ góp phần tạo đà cho các nước này.
Và sự kết hợp của tăng trưởng và tiềm lực lao động trẻ đã và đang thu hút nhiều đầu tư trực tiếp của nước ngoài tới các nước này.
Tuy nhiên giới quan sát cũng nói tới rủi ro khi đầu tư vào nhóm các nước "CIVETS".
Xem video tại đây: http://www.bbc.co.uk/vietnamese/multimedia/2012/06/120605_civets_economies.shtml

CIVETS

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to: navigation, search

This article is about the group of nations known as CIVETS. For other uses, see Civet (disambiguation).

CIVETS countries: Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa

CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa)^[1] is an acronym for favored emerging markets that was coined in late 2009 by Robert Ward, global forecasting director for the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).^{[2][not in citation given]} The term has also been used by HSBC's chief executive Michael Geoghegan. These countries are favored for several reasons, such as "a diverse and dynamic economy" and "a young, growing population".^[3] This list is comparable to the Next Eleven, devised by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs, and the G20 developing nations.

Contents 1 Etymology 2 Implications 3 Commonalities 4 Exchange Traded Fund 5 Challenges 6 Members 6.1 Colombia 6.2 Indonesia 6.3 Vietnam 6.4 Egypt 6.5 Turkey 6.6 South Africa 7 Economic data 8 References

Etymology

The acronym was coined by Robert Ward, Global Director of the Global Forecasting Team of the Economist Intelligence Unit, and was further disseminated by Michael Geoghegan, President of the Anglo-Chinese HSBC, in a speech to the Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce in April 2010. Geoghegan compared these countries to the civet, a carnivorous mammal that eats and partially digests coffee cherries, passing a transformed coffee bean that is considered very valuable and fetches high prices.

Implications

The economies that are part of this group are considered to be very promising because they have reasonably sophisticated financial systems, controlled inflation, and soaring young populations.^[4]
Michael Geoghegan has called these countries "the new BRICS" because of their potential as second-generation emerging economies. In 2010 he said, "emerging markets will grow three times as fast as developed countries this year", adding that the center of gravity of the world was moving towards the East and the South (Asia and Latin America).^[5]
As well as being seen as attractive markets, the role of CIVETS countries in global governance is also discussed, especially at the G20, of which Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are members. They are already perceived as "development providers investing in peer-to-peer learning and horizontal partnerships and (...) are bound to become strategic players at the G20, UN and IFI levels".^[6] In view of this, during the 2011 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the Economy and Finance Ministers of the CIVETS countries established a formal mechanism for communication and coordination.^[7]
All the CIVETS countries except Colombia and South Africa are also 'Next Eleven' countries.

Commonalities

The CIVETS countries all have in common that: that they have great variety of exports; their economies consist mostly of primary products and natural resources; they have geostrategic locations; in the past five years^[when?] foreign direct investment has increased considerably; and some^[who?] say that in the next twenty years they may be above G-7 countries^{[clarification needed (in what respect?)]}. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, CIVETS will have healthy yearly growth rates of 4.9% for the next twenty years, while G-7 countries are predicted to have yearly growth rates of only 1.8%.^{[citation needed]}

Exchange Traded Fund

Major Exchange-traded fund (ETF) data as at December 28, 2010:^[8]

• Vietnam: VNM, up 1.52%,
• Egypt: EGPT, up 4.85% in 13 weeks, because of new fund,
• Turkey: TUR, up 26.63%,
• South Africa: EZA, up 31.80%
• Colombia: GXG, up 49.07%

Challenges

All of these countries also share similar challenges: unemployment, corruption, and inequality are persistent problems in most of the countries of the group.

Members

Colombia

Although Colombia is the oldest democracy in Latin America,^{[9] [10]} it has suffered a conflict with terrorist groups for more than 40 years that has threatened its stability. This has changed dramatically since implementation of policy seguridad democrática (democratic security) in 2003,^[11] improving the reputation of this country in the world.
There are policies that favor the creation of businesses, and foreigners can integrate into this market without any major hurdles.^[12] Foreign investment increased five-fold between 2002 and 2010,^[13] and there has been an oil boom.^[14] The country is devising strategies to avoid the Dutch disease as billions of dollars enter the country.
As of August 2010, Colombia has a budget deficit of 3.6%, which is reasonable according to The Economist. Inflation rate is 2.6% and external debt a modest 47% of GDP.^[15] The influx of foreign money is leading to improvements in infrastructure.

Indonesia

After emerging as the third-fastest-growing member of the G20 in 2009, Indonesia has been a strong performer. Like China and India, it is expanding rapidly. Investment growth in 2009 was boosted by infrastructure spending and high commodity prices. Last year^[when?] Indonesia expanded at 4.4%.
The population of Indonesia is 243 million and it has a GDP of $521 billion. The budget deficit is 2.1% of GDP, and the current account is in surplus.^{[16][not in citation given][when?]}

Vietnam

Vietnam is a member of ASEAN.
After the death of its leader Le Duan in 1986, Vietnam began making the transition from communism to a capitalist economy, after suffering an inflation rate of 700% and a stagnant economy.^[17] The Communist Party launched a broad economic reform package called Doi Moi ("Renewal"), with similarities to the Chinese model (economic openness mixed with communist politics), and achieving similar results. Between 1990 and 1997 Vietnam's economy grew at 8% per annum, with similar results in the following years.
Vietnam's rapid growth from the extreme poverty of 1986 has given rise to western consumerist habits, especially among the new rich of Vietnam, opening the gap of social inequality and bringing inflation up to 12%, after it had recovered to 4%. However, Communist Party leaders are optimistic of maintaining the growth rate so that in ten years it will be considered an industrialized country.^{[18][not in citation given]}

Egypt

In September 2011 the World Bank predicted growth of just 1% for that year, compared with 5.2% in the previous year, but analysts expected Egypt to regain its growth trajectory once political stability returned. Egypt has many assets, including fast-growing ports on the Mediterranean and Red Sea linked by the Suez Canal, a growing tourism network, and vast untapped natural gas reserves. Egypt's 82 million population has a median age of 25.^[19]

Turkey

Turkey had the world's 15th largest GDP (PPP) in 2008^[20] and 17th largest nominal GDP in 2009.^[21] It is a founding member of the OECD (1961) and the G-20 major economies (1999). Since December 31, 1995, it has been part of the EU Customs Union. Mean wages were $8.71 per man-hour in 2009. Turkey grew at an average rate of 7.5 percent between 2002 and 2006, faster than any other OECD country. Istanbul, its financial capital, is fourth in the world^{[clarification needed (by what measure?)]}, behind Tokyo, New York and London.^[22] Turkey's major cities and its Aegean coastline attract millions of visitors every year.
The CIA classifies Turkey as a developed country.^[23] It is often classified as a newly industrialized country by economists and political scientists.^[24][25][26]

South Africa

This unreferenced section requires citations to ensure verifiability.

South Africa is Africa's largest economy and represents 25% of its GDP, making it important to the development of the whole region. The South African economy has a large volume of capital (public and private) in close relation to the global economic grids.^[jargon]
The currency of South Africa is the rand, which is also used in other countries of Southern Africa. Johannesburg Stock Exchange is the biggest in Africa and tenth globally.
Major sectors of the economy are mining (especially coal extraction), diamonds, gold and platinum. It among the countries with the greatest reserves and diversity of mineral wealth. It has the most powerful and diversified industry in Africa, from processing of agricultural goods and minerals to the automotive, aerospace and energy industries.
South Africa's national parks, which attract visitors from around the world, play a significant role in its economy.

Economic data

According to the CIA World Factbook:^[when?]

Member	2011 GDP[27] (nominal PPP)[28] Millions $USD		2011 GDP per capita (nominal PPP)[29] $USD		2011 Exports[30] Millions $USD	Population Jul. 2012 (est.) [31]
Colombia	321,500	467,000	6.953	10,100	55,030	45,239,079
Indonesia	834,300	1,121,000	3,498	4,700	208,900	248,216,193
Vietnam	121,600	299,200	1,341	3,300	96,810	91,519,289
Egypt	231,900	515,400	2,925	6,500	27,960	83,688,164
Turkey	763,100	1,053,000	10,579	14,600	133,000	79,749,461
South Africa	422,000	554,600	8,370	11,000	94,210	48,810,427