Trung Quốc năm 2030
China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious,
and Creative High-Income Society
From the early 1500s until the early 1800s, China’s economy was the world’s largest.
By 1820, it was one-fifth again as big as Europe’s and accounted for a third of world
gross domestic product (GDP). But the next two centuries were tumultuous for China.
The country experienced catastrophic decline between 1820 and 1950 and then,
starting in 1978, meteoric rise (Maddison 2001).
Today, China is once again among the largest economies of the world, having overtaken Japan in 2010. Its economy is now second only to that of the United States (third, if the European Union is counted as one economy), and it is the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter. The East Asian miracle may have lost some of its luster after the financial crisis of 1997–98, but China’s performance continues to impress. Even if China grows a third as slowly in the future compared with its past (6.6 percent a year on average compared with 9.9 percent over the past 30 years), it will become a high-income country sometime before 2030 and outstrip the United States in economic size (its per capita income, however, will still be a fraction of that in advanced countries). If China achieves this milestone, it will have avoided the “middle-income trap” by traversing the seemingly impossible chasm between lowincome and high-income status within a generation and a half—a remarkable achievement for any country, let alone one the size of China.
But two questions arise. Can China’s growth rate still be among the highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace? And can it maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the environment, and the fabric of its own society? We answer “yes” to both, but only if China transitions from policies that served it so well in the past to ones that address the very different challenges of a very different future. This overview, supported by five underpinning volumes, identifies these challenges of tomorrow, points to key choices ahead, and recommends not just “what” needs to be reformed, but “how” to undertake the reforms.
The overview is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter examines
the characteristics of China’s development since 1978; considers future opportunities,
challenges, and risks; and describes a vision of China in the year 2030. The second chapter maps a new strategy that will realize this vision, focusing on the key choices ahead for China to sustain rapid economic and social development and become a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society before 2030. Chapters 3–8 elaborate on each of the six pillars of the new strategy: consolidating China’s market foundations; enhancing innovation; promoting green development; ensuring equality of opportunity and social protection for all; strengthening public finances; and achieving mutually beneficial win-win relations between China and the rest of the world. The ninth and final chapter addresses implementation challenges, including the sequencing of proposed reforms and overcoming obstacles that are likely to emerge.
By 1820, it was one-fifth again as big as Europe’s and accounted for a third of world
gross domestic product (GDP). But the next two centuries were tumultuous for China.
The country experienced catastrophic decline between 1820 and 1950 and then,
starting in 1978, meteoric rise (Maddison 2001).
Today, China is once again among the largest economies of the world, having overtaken Japan in 2010. Its economy is now second only to that of the United States (third, if the European Union is counted as one economy), and it is the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter. The East Asian miracle may have lost some of its luster after the financial crisis of 1997–98, but China’s performance continues to impress. Even if China grows a third as slowly in the future compared with its past (6.6 percent a year on average compared with 9.9 percent over the past 30 years), it will become a high-income country sometime before 2030 and outstrip the United States in economic size (its per capita income, however, will still be a fraction of that in advanced countries). If China achieves this milestone, it will have avoided the “middle-income trap” by traversing the seemingly impossible chasm between lowincome and high-income status within a generation and a half—a remarkable achievement for any country, let alone one the size of China.
But two questions arise. Can China’s growth rate still be among the highest in the world even if it slows from its current pace? And can it maintain this rapid growth with little disruption to the world, the environment, and the fabric of its own society? We answer “yes” to both, but only if China transitions from policies that served it so well in the past to ones that address the very different challenges of a very different future. This overview, supported by five underpinning volumes, identifies these challenges of tomorrow, points to key choices ahead, and recommends not just “what” needs to be reformed, but “how” to undertake the reforms.
The overview is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter examines
the characteristics of China’s development since 1978; considers future opportunities,
challenges, and risks; and describes a vision of China in the year 2030. The second chapter maps a new strategy that will realize this vision, focusing on the key choices ahead for China to sustain rapid economic and social development and become a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society before 2030. Chapters 3–8 elaborate on each of the six pillars of the new strategy: consolidating China’s market foundations; enhancing innovation; promoting green development; ensuring equality of opportunity and social protection for all; strengthening public finances; and achieving mutually beneficial win-win relations between China and the rest of the world. The ninth and final chapter addresses implementation challenges, including the sequencing of proposed reforms and overcoming obstacles that are likely to emerge.
See continue:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/r/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2012/02/27/Foreign/Graphics/New-China-2030-overview.pdf
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